Prophets

In Manhattan last week the American Statistical Association held a banquet, heard six noted statisticians attempt to predict the future of Business and the Market. Three of the speakers said neither the Market nor Business has reached a bottom; one said the present may be the bottom; two were vague.

Even less uniformity was shown when the speakers attempted to select groups of stocks which will rise most during the next two years. Most prominent was the food & dairy industry, mentioned four times. Practically every other industry was favored by at least one speaker. But no speaker was very enthusiastic over even his own selections. The tone of the meeting was definitely bearish.

Other prophets heard during the week were bullish. Alfred Pritchard Sloan Jr., lean president of General Motors Corp. said: "I see no reason why 1931 should not be an extremely good year." Iron Age (75 years old last week) reported a "change of sentiment in the steel industry." The first quarter of 1931 was seen as the likely end of the decline in business by Harvard Economic Society, Inc.

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