Shadow of the Polls

The country is Republican. The Republican Party will continue its control of Congress--Chairman Simeon Davison Fess of the Republican National Committee.

I unhesitatingly make the prediction that the House of Representatives will show a Democratic majority--Chairman Jouett Shouse of Democratic Executive Committee.

With these formal forecasts by rival party leaders, the 1930 Congressional campaign moved into its last hot week. Biggest issue: The Slump. Chief Democratic argument: "Hoover hard times." Republican argument: No economic recovery under Democratic rule. The election's magic number: 53.

Gain v. Loss. Republicans conceded the loss of 15 to 30 House seats. Democrats estimated "sure gains" at 35. To fulfill the Shouse forecast they needed to take 53 seats from Republicans. These were to come, according to the Democratic chairman, as follows: seven from New England; 15 from the middle Atlantic States; six from the South; 30 from the Midwest.

Republicans felt more confident of holding the Senate. Democrats figured their Senate gains at six, which would still leave the Republicans with a five-vote majority.

Finances. As usual the Republicans had more campaign cash than the Democrats. Semi-final reports showed that the Republican National Committee had spent $573,173 while the Democratic National Committee was spending $159,233. Chairman John Jacob Raskob kept his Democratic National Committee alive with loans and contributions totalling $220,000. Bernard Mannes Baruch was financing, practically singlehanded, the Democratic fight to win Senate seats.

Where the money was spent indicated where the party chiefs anticipated the hottest contests. To hold their House strength the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee sent $12,500 into Ohio, $7,000 into Missouri, $4,000 into Indiana, $4,000 into West Virginia, $3,750 into Kentucky. In smaller amounts $23,000 was divided among South Dakota, Tennessee, Nebraska, Minnesota, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Illinois, Colorado and Massachusetts. Democrat headquarters was spending heavily to win Senate seats in Oklahoma, Delaware, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio. A thousand Democratic dollars had been despatched to Oregon to beat Republican Willis Chatman Hawley, co-author of the new Tariff Act.

Last week's campaign developments:

Ohio. So certain seemed the defeat of Dry Republican Senator McCulloch by Wet Democratic Nominee Bulkley that Chairman Fess suddenly dropped his national duties to go home and stump frantically for his colleague.

New-Jersey. Up & down the State hurried Alexander ("Little Napoleon") Simpson, Democratic nominee for the Senate, caustically charging his Republican opponent, Dwight Whitney Morrow, with responsibility for hard times and unemployment. He compared Mr. Morrow to the Dalai Lama of Tibet, declared the Morrow butler perfumes the Morrow soupspoon. Nominee Morrow meets these attacks with such sweet reasonableness as: "It's not at all unnatural for the political party out of power to blame bad times on the political party in power. Conversely it is the habit of the party in power during a period of prosperity to take credit for good times whether they have had anything to do with it or not."

Illinois. Mrs. Ruth Hanna McCormick, Republican nominee for the Senate, lost the support of Chicago's Mayor William Hale ("Big Bill") Thompson (see page 17). Police riot squads had to be summoned to handle the crowds that turned out to hear James Hamilton Lewis, her Democratic opponent, at Soldier Field.

Oregon. Republican Senator Charles Linza McNary was obliged to leave his prune ranch, get out and hustle for reelection.

Kentucky. In behalf of Senator John Marshall Robsion's election Republicans revived the 1928 religious issue against Democrats. Big newspapers maintained a troubled silence on the campaign. Under a new law election returns will not be counted until the day after the polls close. In the event of a dose contest for House control, settlement of the issue may be delayed until the Kentucky count is completed.

Rhode Island. In his attempt to regain the Senate seat and the high place in Washington society he lost two years ago, Peter Goelet Gerry, Democratic nominee, had the advantage of a smart wife who can speak French. Mrs. Gerry (once Mrs. George Washington Vanderbilt) campaigned for her husband by going into the homes of French-Canadian textile workers in the Blackstone and Pawtuxet valleys to speak to them in their own language. Adroitly she shut the door behind her on newsmen who sought to quote her French. Nominee Gerry's opponent, Republican Senator Jesse Houghton Metcalf, raised the old issue that the Gerrys are not actual residents of Rhode Island but are anxious to use the State only as a springboard to get back to Washington. Last week Senator Metcalf startled his party leaders by declaring for Prohibition repeal in a belated effort to keep Nominee Gerry from getting all the Wet votes.

Iowa. Democratic headquarters abandoned all hope of pulling through to reelection Senator Daniel Frederic Steck.

Nebraska. The disclosure that his primary opponent, State Treasurer William Stebbins, had put a grocer's clerk named George W. Norris into the contest to confuse the voters, apparently clinched the re-election of Republican Senator George William Norris.

Montana. Dry Democratic Senator Thomas James Walsh was running for reelection on campaign cash supplied by John Jacob Raskob as Democratic chairman. Wet Republican Nominee Albert John Galen was opposing him on campaign cash supplied by John Jacob Raskob as chief contributor to the Association Against the 18th Amendment.

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