"Incalculable. . . Prosperity"
The striking thesis was weightily advanced in Paris, last week, that France has doubled or tripled in economic strength, directly as a result of the War.
In a massive 343-page report this conclusion is drawn from a multitude of sources by Commercial Counselor Joseph R. Cahill of the British Embassy at Paris. The report was issued in book form, last week, by the British Department of Overseas Trade and produced an international sensation. One of its major conclusions, that French prosperity is due in large part to the French protective tariff, was promptly taken up in London by the many onetime English free traders who have now turned protectionist. The most potent of these is Baron Melchett, foremost British Chemical and Industrial Tycoon (TIME, Oct. 29). Speaking in London last week Lord Melchett alluded to the Cahill Report and belligerently said:
"The people of other states are not hesitating to defend their position by means of high tariffs. It is time for the Empire to assert itself. This may sound curious from an old free trader like myself. But conditions have changed and the traditional free trade sentiment of the British public has changed with them. More iron is wanted in the soul of this country! We must have the courage to put a high tariff wall around the Empire!"
Returning to the Cahill Report on French Prosperity, observers noted first its unequivocally optimistic tone: "France is at present incalculably stronger industrially than in 1913. . . . Hers is an enhanced, all-pervading and solidly based economic advance . . . signal prosperity ... an age of industrial expansion unprecedented in French history and of a magnitude unsurpassed by any other European country."
Counselor Joseph Cahill, exhaustively analyzing whole mountains of sources, concludes that present French prosperity rests on four primary bases: 1) Stabilization of the franc by Prime Minister Raymond Poincare, an achievement now nearly two years old (TIME, Feb. 7, 1927); 2) Protection of French industries by the present tariff; 3) Enlargement of French factories and productive equipment; 4) Development of new processes and enhancement of technical efficiency.
In developing the last two and major points of his thesis Counselor Cahill is factually illuminating where most analysts would prove vague. He observes that the capture by Imperial Germany of so many industrial towns in Northern France forced the development of an entire new industrial area around such southern, central and western cities as Marseilles, Bordeaux, Toulouse, Grenoble, Limoges, Tours, Caen, Rouen and even Paris. It is these new and War-born producer areas which Mr. Cahill hails as of paramount significance in the French industrial boom of today.
With authentic enthusiasm Counselor Cahill writes: "France has become the greatest iron ore country in Europe; she has acquired potash concessions far in excess of her consumption; compared with 1923, she has increased her coal output by one-sixth, doubled her coke output and more than trebled her electrical capacity.
"She is now producing more pig iron than Great Britain and more steel, whereas in 1913 she was third among nations in this field. Astonishing progress has been made in engineering. ... It is eloquently told by the rise of engineering exports from 313,600 tons in 1913 to 1,469,000 tons in 1927, while imports in this line dropped from 440,000 tons to 250,000.
"In the chemical industry universal progress has taken place; in almost every branch France is advancing toward self-support to all practical purposes--the home market, which now is substantially larger than in 1913, absorbs 30 per cent less imports, while exports are superior by 140 per cent.
"The chief textile trades tell the same story. The silk output is nearly double; that of artificial silk about sixfold. Woolen and cotton industries . . . have maintained or increased their output.
"Other industries, which are not comprised in these great groups--food industries, leather working, rubber, pottery, porcelain, glass, paper, etc.--might be cited to illustrate how home productions have become so advanced that . . . there remain great surpluses in many cases for foreign markets.
". . . In nearly all branches there are recorded increased exports and diminished imports for the ordinary goods of current consumption, due no doubt to the larger scale organization of industry and increased capacity of producing standardized goods/whether textiles, chemicals, engineering products or iron and semisteel products."
In concluding his eloquent and sense-making report, Counselor Cahill ably tabulated the 1913 and 1928 ranking of the Powers in respect to the amount of goods which they export to France:
"Principal Suppliers for France"
1913 1928
Great Britain U.S.
Germany Great Britain
U.S. Germany
Tabulating similarly the "Principal Customers of France," Mr. Cahill shows that Great Britain bought most in 1913 and still does; while the U.S. buys so little from France today as to stand in sixth place. This is but another way of saying that French goods are kept out of the U.S. by a tariff wall, and let into England by the fact that the Empire is not shielded as Lord Melchett would like to see it shielded.
Frenchmen naturally received the Cahill Report, last week, with marked distaste. They do not like to appear too prosperous. Their Parliament has not yet ratified the Franco-U.S. debt settlement (TIME, May 10, 1926); and their statesmen like to repeat that France is too poor to pay. Also negotiations are about to begin for the purpose of revising the Dawes Plan (TIME, Sept. 24, et seq.). France wishes her statesmen to attend these solely on the basis that there shall be no scaling down of the reparations owed by Germany to War-devastated and impoverished France.
Plainly the appearance of the Cahill Report, last week, was one more instance of the fact that the British Foreign Office continues to blunder by letting its officials do, time and time again, just the inconvenient and pettily annoying thing which will rile the Empire's good and faithful ally, France.