Cold England?

From London's smart Mayfair to Scotland's dour Hebrides, every Britishman knows that the only thing which keeps him reasonably warm is the Gulf Stream. Alarming, therefore, was a report last week by two White Star Line skippers that, according to their observations, the Gulf Stream has recently changed its course ten points. Should it swerve away from the British Isles entirely, they would become semi-Arctic. Stern old duchesses and gouty earls would have to flee, pellmell, with cockneys and Irishmen before a new Ice Age. Cold England would have to be abandoned, and Britishmen would seek refuge in their Dominions.

Fortunately the White Star Line score was immediately countered by its rival, the Cunard Line, one of whose skippers was quick to curry popular favor by declaring that his observations showed nothing wrong with the Gulf Stream. Finally the North-German Lloyd's Commodore, Herr Johnsen, scathingly observed that of course the observations of such fast ships as to the currents they were cutting through must naturally be treated with reserve.

Knowing persons recalled that all smart sea captains make a practice of announcing or denying the occurrence of sea marvels--such as "worst storms," "first whales of the season" or "largest icebergs"--with intent to cause the names of their ships to appear in public prints. Indulgent pressmen did not mind printing the ships which went a-Gulf-Streaming last week: Homeric & Majestic, Mauretania and Columbus.

Oceanology. The hottest part of the Atlantic Ocean runs about 350 miles (5DEG) north of the Equator, from Africa to South America. Carribbean waters are just as warm (80DEG F.). Almost as warm, and much higher in level than the open ocean is the Gulf of Mexico. The combination of Gulf temperature and level with the West Indies volcanic action and the twirling of the Earth sets a current of warm water running north along the American coast to Newfoundland--the Gulf Stream. A wall of cold water separates the Gulf Stream from the North American continent.

Off Newfoundland the Gulf Stream meets the Labrador Stream coming down from the north. Their meeting causes the fogs over the Grand Banks.

The Gulf Stream, swiftest moving and best studied of ocean currents, however, loses comparatively little of its heat at Newfoundland. It drifts eastward to help warm all of Europe, including of course England.* Europe is warmer than North America. Off Europe the Gulf Stream Drift splits into three streams. One goes between the Faeroe and Shetland Islands north of Scotland, another along west Iceland, the third along the western side of Greenland.

Occasionally temporary branches of the Gulf Stream have been noted. Perhaps the steamship captains, reporting a reversal of the Stream last week, had ignorantly floundered through some such stray stream.

But a more recondite reason is possible. Tides, lunar and solar, of course influence ocean currents. When sun and moon act together their pull gives the entire ocean flow a mighty wrench and affects the climate of bordering land.

The most recent maximum sun-moon yank at the oceans occurred in 1433. Climate changes that happened comparatively soon before were amazing to Europeans. Greenland (this was at the time reported by the Norse sagas) was comparatively free of ice. From 800 to 1250 Iceland had few volcanic disturbances, but between 1290 and 1348 had many and terrific. In the 13th and 15th Centuries the Baltic Sea between Denmark, Germany and Sweden was frequently frozen all the way across. The Zuider Zee was formed about 1287. England was miserable.

But closely-crowded England made frantic by last week's surmises, may go back to its beer, skittles and political harangues. The next mighty sun-moon tide (and freezeup) will not occur until the year 3300. The lesser joint high tides, which occur at intervals of 93, 19, 9 and 4 1/2 years (and their effects on the Gulf Stream, and so European climate) are imperceptible to ordinary men.

* When winter winds blow from the Arctic they shove towards Europe water warmed during the summer.