The Job

When a man offers to do an important job, it is scarcely unreasonable of the men who want the job done to ask how he proposes to do it.

To demonstrate how Alfred Emanuel Smith might return the Democratic Party to power in the land, proponents of the Brown Derby argued at Houston as follows:

There are 531 electoral votes.

It takes 266 to elect.

If the Solid South--States which never have gone Republican--would stand by Smith, he would have 114 votes (Alabama, 12; Arkansas, 9; Florida, 6; Georgia, 14; Louisiana, 10; Mississippi, 10; North Carolina, 12; South Carolina, 9; Texas, 20; Virginia, 12).

Smith's prime claim to candidacy is his claim that he could carry his own New York, which has 45 votes. So that is the next factor to add. The Solid South plus New York would make 159 votes.

The next consideration is the Border States, usually Democratic but often Republican. Six Border States total 64 votes (Delaware, 3; Maryland, 8; Kentucky, 13; Tennessee, 12; Missouri, 18; Oklahoma, 10).

Smith would have to carry most of the Border States to be within striking distance. The Solid South plus New York plus all the Border States would be 223 votes.

Now the Democracy would have to invade Republican territory. The Smith appeal is primarily to urban voters. Therefore the next States to consider, in the order of their likelihood for Smith, are:

New Jersey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14

Massachusetts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18

Indiana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15

Ohio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

Illinois . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Needing 43 votes to win, Smith could be elected by carrying any three of these, or any two, if one of them were Illinois.

Should Smith fail to get 43 votes among the Urban States, he still could win. There are four Western States with Democratic leanings. They are: Arizona, 3; Montana, 4; South Dakota, 5; Colorado, 6; totalling 18.

This group, plus Ohio or Illinois or two of the other Urban States could put Smith over, provided he had the Solid South, his own New York and the Border.