FIGURING

A man gets to be President of the U. S. by winning the electoral votes of the several states--alphabetically from Alabama, with twelve votes, to Wyoming, with three.

When Governor Smith takes out pencil and paper to cast up his chances, he probably begins by weighing his chances to get the votes which Woodrow Wilson got in 1916. Mr. Wilson needed 266 votes to win. He got 277.

Mr. Wilson got 70 votes from the States of California, Idaho, Kansas, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, Utah, Washington, West Virginia. Suppose Governor Smith should get none of these votes: subtract them from Wilson's total of 277, the result is 207.

But Mr. Wilson failed to carry New York (45) and New Jersey (14), for both of which Governor Smith has a chance. Add 45 and 14 to 207: result 266: Governor Smith is elected without a vote to spare.

Too easy? Let the list be reconsidered. Of the states which voted for Woodrow Wilson and which, in the above estimate, have so far been left to Governor Smith's credit, Democratic chances are weakess in Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Wyoming, all of whose votes total 39. Subtract 39 from Governor Smith's previous total of 266--the result is 227: Governor Smith is defeated by 39.

But of the doubtful states named in the above paragraph, consider Montana, New Mexico, Oklahoma. Five out of six of their Senators are now Democrats. These states have 17 votes; give them to Governor Smith; Smith is still defeated, for 227 + 17 is only 244, and Smith needs 266 to be elected President.

But the big ace which Governor Smith might, without legerdemain, draw is Massachusetts. Calvin Coolidge once governed it; but it has Wets, Catholics, immigrants; it sent last fall Catholic-Democrat David Ignatius Walsh to the Senate. Give its 18 votes to Smith, Smith's total becomes 262. Looking for 4 more votes, Governor Smith must cast his eyes far into the sunset. Wyoming might well turn Democratic again--but it has only 3 votes. But one step south is Colorado with 6 votes and last fall Colorado elected a Democratic governor. Give Colorado's vote to Smith, his total becomes 268--the sidewalks of New York leap into a frenzied dance--Al is elected with only 2 votes to spare.

Soberly to summarize, Smith would be elected if he carried the following 22 states: Alabama 12 Arizona 8 Arkansas fl Colorado 6 Florida 6 Georgia 14 Kentucky 18 Louisiana 10 Maryland 8 Massachusetts 18 Mississippi 10 Missouri 18 Montana 4 New Jersey 14 New Mexico New York 45 North Carolina 12 Oklahoma 10 South Carolina 9 Tennessee 12 Texas 20 Virginia 12 268

Thus even though Republicans carried such great states as Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana and all New England (except Massachusetts) and the Pacific Coast, and all the Rocky Mountains (except Montana and Colorado) and all the doubtful Corn Belt and radical

Wisconsin, Governor Smith could-- if nominated--still be elected President.

Last week, if Governor Smith had reckoned up his presidential prospects, he would have been vastly cheered. The dying Republican New York State Legislature had joyfully slaughtered nearly every bill he favored, had given him the worst rebuff of four terms. But when they killed the three measures the Governor offered in his desperate fight to save the state's waterpower for the people, they gave him a national issue and enhanced, observers said, his growing reputation as a sane, far-sighted progressive. The Republican plan provided for private exploitation under long-term lease of vast waterpower resources. The Governor's issue is: State control, State exploitation, cheap power for the people.