Current Situation

Before U. S. business recovers its perspective, the holiday season must be passed and forgotten. Christmas buying always lends a strong seasonal stimulation to merchants, which is reflected back into industry. So far buying has been good without being hectic or extraordinary. Nevertheless it constitutes a temporary and rather artificial element in the general business situation.

Another hurdle which business forecasting must take is its own verbosity. This is the season of annual statements, annual messages, annual outlooks and the like by prominent business leaders. Normally such documents are mildly and vaguely optimistic, no matter what the future probabilities are.