The Current Situation

Although the "steel barometer" has failed to register a decline so far, it is still possible that somebody may be holding a match under it. Elsewhere in business, the earmarks of a new downward "trend" seem plainly apparent. Not only have commodity prices as a whole registered their first decline for many months, but in the speculative markets the drop has been especially severe. Even the much-heralded intention to advance steel prices has apparently been abandoned. Thus it may be that the recent advance of the New York Reserve rediscount rate will mark a "turn" in business from expansion to contraction. Moreover, some lines of business, such as the textiles, have been poor all along.

Merchants look, and not without sound evidence, for a generally profitable spring. Beyond that, the outcome will depend largely on the size and profitable character of our major crops and the situation abroad.