Mark Sullivan

Mark Sullivan, political observer, writes for Republican papers, at present for The New York Herald-Tribune.

Mark Sullivan, like all other men, is not infallible. But Mark Sullivan is notably dispassionate, notably shrewd; moreover, notably conservative in his judgments. Last week, when he pre-computed the electoral votes of states, many persons accepted his mathematical approximation rather as logical conclusion than as prophecy or even prediction.

Said he: "For simplicity's sake, let the estimate take the form of examining whether Coolidge can win. . . . The Democrats freely concede that their fight is to prevent Coolidge from getting a majority [266 electoral votes]."

He postulated Coolidge's irreducible minimum:

Maine 6 New Hampshire 4 Vermont 4 Massachusetts 18 Connecticut 7 Pennsylvania 38 Michigan 15 Kansas 10 Utah 4 Oregon 5

He arrayed three concessional states which "a few Democratic leaders may refuse to concede publicly" but which "practically none of them hesitate to concede privately":

New York 45 Illinois 29 Ohio 24

Total (plus the above) 209

He set down "in roughly the order of their likelihood," four states that he felt were "in some degree fighting ground" but normally Republican:

California 13 Iowa 13 Wyoming 3 Idaho 4

Total (plus the above) 242

California he called doubtful "merely in the interest of caution." As for Iowa, he recalled an old political saying that "Iowa will go Democratic when Hell goes Methodist."

He then dealt with "real fighting ground"--the five border states--and conceded their 47 votes to Davis. These are: Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, Missouri, Oklahoma.

The South remaining solid, Mark Sullivan was then left with ten controversial states wherein the Republican claims seemed to him as valid as the Democratic. He did not attempt to figure them out, but fell back on the bettor's law of averages to arrive at the tentative conclusion that Mr. Coolidge would be able to total the requisite 266 by rallying 24 more votes out of the 70 thus remaining "in the pot." The states are:

Washington 7 Montana 4 South Dakota 5 Colorado 6 Nebraska 8 Arizona 3 New Mexico 4 Indiana 15 New Jersey 14 Rhode Island 5

Mark Sullivan did not conclude with a flourishing "Q. E. D." Instead, he stated his biggest assumptions. These were three in number and each bore differently on the tentative result. He had assumed: 1) that New York, Iowa and California would go Republican; 2) that LaFollette would carry Minnesota; 3) that Davis would carry the five border states.

Finally, Mark Sullivan estimated that the greatest possibility of Davis and LaFollette combined depriving Coolidge of a majority lay equally in: 1) La-Follette carrying Iowa and California; or 2) Davis carrying Indiana and New Jersey.