Current Situation

Trade, now in the depths of Summer slack, faces a double speculation as to the Fall. Seasonal recovery is of course to be expected, but how far it will go remains an enigma. The basic soundness of economic conditions is undoubted and is creating wide optimism as to the future. But merchants and manufacturers would like to see something more than rosy prospects, and soon they will become impatient unless definitely auspicious signs develop, however faintly.

The second gamble is politics, now on the threshold of a lively Presidential campaign. The tendency has been to disregard the LaFollette movement as insignificant and unimportant, and to hold that Coolidge will win rather easily over Davis. Yet those who have taken pencil and paper, and attempted to discover just how the Republicans will get the electoral votes necessary for victory are not so certain of all this. As yet there has been no barometer--except perhaps grain price--to register political sentiment in the country.