Wheat Forecast

The wheat forecast made on June 1 each year by the Department of Agriculture is of course an estimate only, and sometimes a quite faulty one at that. Nevertheless, it usually indicates clearly enough prevailing tendencies relating to the new crops. The Government's guess as to the size of the total current crop is only 693 million bushels -- less than any other year's back to 1916 and 1917 when the crop was very disappointing. It is evident that the low wheat prices have led to considerable curtailment of the farmers' plantings. This year's cold and rainy Spring has had the further important effect of considerably retarding the crops, and in consequence the Government's condition estimates are placed at very low figures. For Winter wheat, con dition is estimated at only 74% -- the lowest since 1917 when the figure of 70.9 was reached. Even worse is the estimate of condition of Spring wheat at 82.3--lower than any year for twelve years, and considerably under the 88.2 figure of 1916. Acreages have also been reduced sharply; that of Winter wheat is 53,818,000 compared with 58,253,000 last year, while that for Spring wheat is 16,920,000 against 18,786,000 last year. As far as estimates go, therefore, wheat figures are all "bullish." It is recognized by many historians that the rise in wheat prices in the Autumn of 1896 allayed agricultural unrest, defeated Bryan and elected McKinley. From a statistical point of view, there may well be a similar rise in wheat prices before election, with vast potential consequences to Robert M. La Follette and to the nominees of the Republican and Democratic parties. During the week, wheat rose 8-c- on the Chicago markets. Professor David L. Friday, famed agricultural economist, predicted $1.25 wheat by election time and $1.35 wheat by next December.