Current Situation

The uneasiness of the stock market, its fitful rises and falls, and its air of being about to start in both directions, has reflected the general business outlook. Some branches of trade and business are better, some worse. The spurt of the steel trade is reassuring, granted that former criteria are anything to judge by. On the other hand, the much-touted business cycle does not seem much in evidence just now, or to have marked tendencies of any kind. Industrial leaders make optimistic speeches, bankers are acting noncommittal, philosophers and Senators debate, merchants cut rates on unsalable heavy winter clothing and speak sharply of the unusually warm Winter.

Two fairly certain conditions have become apparent. The flight of capital from abroad is stopping, as the slump in our security market shows. Moreover, the European situation is slowly turning brighter. Germany is acting more anxious to pay at least some reparations. France is less threatening and more conciliatory. England is becoming used to her new "Labour" government. Trade with Russia is in prospect.

Just now the hubbub in Washington is distracting public opinion from more important matters. Soon the attempt to forecast the Spring's market will begin. But trade is still too engaged in reviewing the past year to look that far forward with any certainty.