Cheerful Merchants

The autumn and holiday season trade thus far has justified rather completely the optimistic prophecies frequently made for it in earlier months. Employment is practically complete, wages in many lines are very high, and the public is buying goods in generous quantities. The Federal Reserve Board's index of department store sales established a new high record during last October, which was 6% over the level reached the previous month. Sales of woolens have been particularly large; with cotton and silks dragging considerably behind. In anticipation of the Christmas trade, stores began to stock up in mid-autumn; the stocks in department stores last October for the third successive month showed an increase, and on October 31, stood 22% larger than on July 31. Chain stores, five and ten cent stores and institutions selling drugs, music and groceries also showed considerable increases in their volume of business. In October, the sales of mail order houses were larger than for any month since 1919.

The real question has never been how the merchants would make out this Winter, but whether their activity this season would continue next Spring. That question is still not easy to answer. It would seem that the Spring trade should be respectably large, if not of record-breaking proportions. Yet already a tendencey to cut prices and reduce stocks is discernible in the large stores.