The Ruhr

A Ray of Sunshine in Europe

Herr Cuno, German Chancellor, made his expected reparations offer of 30,000,000,000 gold marks ($7,140,000,000). This amount is only the vanguard of the real German offer which will be 50,000,000,000 gold marks ($11,900,000,000), representing the maximum amount Germany can pay.

The Germans, as well as the rest of the world, knew that a small offer would be unacceptable to the French and Belgians before they made it. Their sole aim was to create a pied a terre for future discussion and settlement of the vexatious reparations problem. It cannot now be denied that a ray of sunshine has broken through the dark clouds overhanging Europe.

It must not be supposed, however, that the machinery, having been oiled, will move with marked rapidity. The outlook is favorable, but some time is sure to elapse before events shape themselves to the political mould.

News from Germany tends to corroborate the prognostication that Cuno will resign in the near future. This event is fairly generally recognized as an indispensable factor in the solution of the whole Ruhr and reparations question.

It must be borne in mind that the thirty billion offer is the direct outcome of the Stinnes proposals in Italy. For the reason that the industrialists are anxious to bring about peace in the Ruhr, a Stinnes nominee will, in all probability, form a cabinet after the predicted fall of Herr Cuno has taken place. The Stinnes man is Herr Stresemann, political head of the People's Party, which is in reality controlled by the industrialists. It seems reasonable to suppose that Stresemann would receive support of the Socialist Party, who are known to favor an early settlement with France--particularly as no other party seems anxious to take the responsibility of forming a new government.

France, seconded by an apparently concurring Belgium, refused point blank to entertain the German offer. It was clearly an impossible figure for her to accept, considering that her share would only amount to about $3,700,000,000. Belgium, committed with France in the Ruhr struggle, had no alternative but to follow in her neighbor's footsteps and decline Germany's offer, although it is known that she is very strongly in favor of a definite settlement.

The French and Belgians in their reply to the German offer stated that "The German note from one end to the other is only a thinly veiled ex- pression of systematic revolt against the Treaty of Versailles." They ask now for the cessation of passive resistance in the Ruhr before any negotiations can take place. They refused the thirty billion gold mark offer, stating that it was inadequate and lacking tangible guarantees.

From a semi-official source it is learnt that Poincare, in conjunction with M. Theunis of Belgium, will have a Franco-Belgian counter reparations plan ready by May 15. He will then place it before the Chamber of Deputies and demand a vote of confidence on it.

The Franco-Belgian attitude presupposes the fifty billion gold mark offer from Germany. Great Britain will, it is known, surrender the major part of her claim against Germany. Thus France would net something between seven and eight billion dollars. With adequate guarantees for payment of this amount, it seems that France will be obliged to accept it, despite her present determined stand against reduction in any form.