The Ruhr

France May Grow Old On the Rhine

Lord Curzon's speech in London a little more than a week ago advising Germany to make an offer to the French and Belgians has evidently had some effect in Germany. Chancellor Cuno announced that he is about to take an important step in connection with the reparations problem.

It is almost certain that the Curzon speech was a British diplomatic feeler intended to bring about an end to the Ruhr impasse, which is a great source of worry to British commercial interests. Strength is lent to this contention by Bonar Law, the British Prime Minister, taking a holiday. His voice was considerably weakened by a recent attack of laryngitis, but he has always taken an active part in cabinet affairs. It is inconceivable that he would leave London unless a plan having his approval as head of the Government had already been decided. The inference is that the Curzon speech was arranged by the Cabinet with the approval of the German Government. Curzon makes the gesture, Bonar Law travels happily away in search of health, Cuno confers with the industrialists and prepares his reparations offer.

The offer will be a round sum of 50,000,000,000 gold marks -- about $11,900,000,000. It will, however, take into consideration the amount already paid to the Allies--about $1,428,000,000, and the British will, it is known, forego a claim to the major part of their share, which is about $2,618,000,000. The net offer will be between seven and eight billion dollars, and it is considered likely that France and Belgium, with the concurrence of Italy, will accept this figure. There is still, however, a possibility that Cuno will open the negotiations with a small offer; but such an action will depend on whether the British Government can persuade the French to accept the fifty billion mark offer as a basis of settlement, or whether France will ask for the cessation of passive resistance before any offer can be considered. As a small offer would be unacceptable to the French and Belgians, and the Germans know this, the larger amount, representing the maximum sum Germany will be able to pay, is sure to be brought forward sooner or later. The Germans would simply use the small offer, not as a ballon d'essai, but as a means of inaugurating direct negotiations.

Once matters are brought to the negotiation stage, it will not be solely a question of reparations and how they are to be paid. France has affirmed more than once that she wants solid guarantees against invasion by Germany. At Versailles the United States and Britain were to have made a treaty with her promising aid in the case of unprovoked attack by her Teuton neighbor. This treaty, as all the world knows, was never concluded, and France was left out in the cold to defend herself. She decided that the occupation of the Ruhr was the best way of doing it, for in no other way could she get the protection she needed. The main issue that will have to be solved when negotiations commence is the demilitarization of the Rhine and possibly the Ruhr. Unless this is guaranteed by an international treaty agreed to by Germany, it seems that France is destined to grow old in the Ruhr.

In the meantime Franco-Belgian policy in the Ruhr has become intensified. General Degoutte issued an order confiscating supplies of coke throughout the occupied area, and at the same time made it known that further resistance would be treated as a criminal offense.