Speaking Generally

A general consensus of opinion indicates that the recent expansion in production and distribution has reached its peak. Nevertheless, previous fears that this expansion would broaden into a reckless and unsound speculative movement are less keenly felt. The principal markets seem to have attained an equilibrium, and the question now is, whether present industrial and mercantile activity can be maintained throughout the year.

The predictions of business leaders are hardly consistent. Secretary Mellon is an out-and-out optimist, who sees no evidence of inflation, no cause for alarm, and a long period of prosperity ahead. Charles M. Schwab is cheerful, but feels it necessary to caution business men against overoptimism. Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank, Manhattan, recognizes present prosperity, but warns against the dangers of rising costs produced by over-swift expansion. Much the same position was taken by the U. S. Department of Commerce in a recent bulletin. In the case of the stock market, J. L. Livermore, noted operator, is more pessimistic. He points out the large amounts of undigested securities now on the market.